Social-ecological vulnerability of fishing communities to climate change: A U.S. West Coast case study.

Climate change is already impacting coastal communities, and ongoing and future shifts in fisheries species productivity from climate change have implications for the livelihoods and cultures of coastal communities. Harvested marine species in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem support U.S. West Coast communities economically, socially, and culturally. Ecological vulnerability assessments exist for individual species in the California Current but ecological and human vulnerability are linked and vulnerability is expected to vary by community. Here, we present automatable, reproducible methods for assessing the vulnerability of U.S. West Coast fishing dependent communities to climate change within a social-ecological vulnerability framework. We first assessed the ecological risk of marine resources, on which fishing communities rely, to 50 years of climate change projections. We then combined this with the adaptive capacity of fishing communities, based on social indicators, to assess the potential ability of communities to cope with future changes. Specific communities (particularly in Washington state) were determined to be at risk to climate change mainly due to economic reliance on at risk marine fisheries species, like salmon, hake, or sea urchins. But, due to higher social adaptive capacity, these communities were often not found to be the most vulnerable overall. Conversely, certain communities that were not the most at risk, ecologically and economically, ranked in the category of highly vulnerable communities due to low adaptive capacity based on social indicators (particularly in Southern California). Certain communities were both ecologically at risk due to catch composition and socially vulnerable (low adaptive capacity) leading to the highest tier of vulnerability. The integration of climatic, ecological, economic, and societal data reveals that factors underlying vulnerability are variable across fishing communities on the U.S West Coast, and suggests the need to develop a variety of well-aligned strategies to adapt to the ecological impacts of climate change.

Avoiding critical thresholds through effective monitoring.

A major challenge in sustainability science is identifying targets that maximize ecosystem benefits to humanity while minimizing the risk of crossing critical system thresholds. One critical threshold is the biomass at which populations become so depleted that their population growth rates become negative-depensation. Here, we evaluate how the value of monitoring information increases as a natural resource spends more time near the critical threshold. This benefit emerges because higher monitoring precision promotes higher yield and a greater capacity to recover from overharvest. We show that precautionary buffers that trigger increased monitoring precision as resource levels decline may offer a way to minimize monitoring costs and maximize profits. In a world of finite resources, improving our understanding of the trade-off between precision in estimates of population status and the costs of mismanagement will benefit stakeholders that shoulder the burden of these economic and social costs.

Perspectives on managing fisheries for community wellbeing in the face of climate change.

Coastal communities are being impacted by climate change, affecting the livelihoods, food security, and wellbeing of residents. Human wellbeing is influenced by the heath of the environment through numerous pathways and is increasingly being included as a desired outcome in environmental management. However, the contributors to wellbeing can be subjective and the values and perspectives of decision-makers can affect the aspects of wellbeing that are included in planning. We used Q methodology to examine how a group of individuals in fisheries management prioritize components of wellbeing that may be important to coastal communities in the California Current social-ecological system (SES). The California Current SES is an integrated system of ecological and human communities with complex linkages and connections where commercial fishing is part of the culture and an important livelihood. We asked individuals that sit on advisory bodies to the Pacific Fisheries Management Council to rank 36 statements about coastal community wellbeing, ultimately revealing three discourses about how we can best support or improve wellbeing in those communities. We examine how the priorities differ between the discourses, identify areas of consensus, and discuss how these perspectives may influence decision-making when it comes to tradeoffs inherent in climate adaptation in fisheries. Lastly, we consider if and how thoughts about priorities have been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Development and validation of in-situ and laboratory X-ray fluorescence (XRF) spectroscopy methods for moss biomonitoring of metal pollution.

Metals are among the pollutants of highest concern in urban areas due to their persistence, bioavailability and toxicity. High concentrations of metals threaten aquatic ecosystem functioning and biodiversity, as well as human health. High-resolution estimates of pollutant sources are required to mitigate exposure to toxic compounds by identifying the specific locations and associated site characteristics where the deposition of metals is greatest. Mosses have been widely used as low-cost biological monitors of metal pollution for decades, because they readily accumulate pollutants over time, reflecting long term pollution levels. However, spectroscopic techniques to determine the concentration of metal pollutants in moss samples still require expensive instrumentation and involve time consuming sample preparation protocols with heavy use of reagents. Here we present protocols to perform in-situ and laboratory X-ray fluorescence (XRF) spectroscopy of epiphytic moss as rapid, low-cost, and accurate alternatives to conventional metal pollution biomonitoring. We also report on a preliminary validation of the measurements using mass fractions determined by inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectroscopy (ICP-OES) as reference.•XRF measurements are taken from moss directly on tree trunks in less than five minutes.•Grinding and pelletizing of moss enables definitive quantitation (R2>0.90) of metals through portable XRF.

Leveraging the potential of nature to meet net zero greenhouse gas emissions in Washington State.

The State of Washington, USA, has set a goal to reach net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, the year around which the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recommended we must limit global warming to 1.5 °C above that of pre-industrial times or face catastrophic changes. We employed existing approaches to calculate the potential for a suite of Natural Climate Solution (NCS) pathways to reduce Washington's net emissions under three implementation scenarios: Limited, Moderate, and Ambitious. We found that NCS could reduce emissions between 4.3 and 8.8 MMT CO2eyr-1 in thirty-one years, accounting for 4% to 9% of the State's net zero goal. These potential reductions largely rely on changing forest management practices on portions of private and public timber lands. We also mapped the distribution of each pathway's Ambitious potential emissions reductions by county, revealing spatial clustering of high potential reductions in three regions closely tied to major business sectors: private industrial forestry in southwestern coastal forests, cropland agriculture in the Columbia Basin, and urban and rural development in the Puget Trough. Overall, potential emissions reductions are provided largely by a single pathway, Extended Timber Harvest Rotations, which mostly clusters in southwestern counties. However, mapping distribution of each of the other pathways reveals wider distribution of each pathway's unique geographic relevance to support fair, just, and efficient deployment. Although the relative potential for a single pathway to contribute to statewide emissions reductions may be small, they could provide co-benefits to people, communities, economies, and nature for adaptation and resiliency across the state.

Low-cost biomonitoring and high-resolution, scalable models of urban metal pollution.

As the global toll on human lives and ecosystems exacted by urban pollution grows, planning tools still lack the resolution to identify priority sites where toxic pollution can be most efficiently averted at a spatial scale that matches funding and management. Here we tackle this gap by demonstrating novel scalable methods to monitor and predict urban metal pollution at high resolution (<5 m) across large areas (10,000-100,000 km2) to guide pollution reduction and stormwater management. We showcase and calibrate predictive models of Zn, Cu, and a synthetic index of pollution for the Puget Sound region of Washington State, U.S., a densely urbanized yet important ecosystem of conservation interest, and exemplify their transferability across the entire United States. We leveraged widely and freely available datasets of car traffic characteristics and land use as predictor variables and trained the models with biological monitoring data of metal concentrations in epiphytic moss from >100 trees based on new rapid and low-cost protocols introduced in this study. Our model predictions, showing that 50% of the total Cu and Zn pollution across the Puget Sound watershed is deposited over only 3.3% of the land area, will allow cities to effectively and efficiently target toxic hotspots.

Impacts of stormwater on coastal ecosystems: the need to match the scales of management objectives and solutions.

Despite their limited area relative to the global ocean, coastal zones-the regions where land meets the sea-play a disproportionately important role in generating ecosystem services. However, coastal ecosystems are under increasing pressure from human populations. In particular, urban stormwater is an increasingly important threat to the integrity of coastal systems. Urban catchments exhibit altered flow regimes that impact ecosystem processes and coastal foodwebs. In addition, urban stormwater contains complex and unpredictable mixtures of chemicals that result in a multitude of lethal and sublethal impacts on species in coastal systems. Along the western coast of the United States, we estimate that hundreds of billions of kilograms of suspended solids flow off land surfaces and enter the Northern California Current each year. However, 70% of this pollution could be addressed by treating only 1.35% of the land area. Determining how to prioritize treatment of stormwater in this region requires a clear articulation of objectives-spatial distribution of appropriate management actions is dependent on the life histories of species, and management schemes optimized for one species may not achieve desired objectives for other species. In particular, we highlight that the scale of stormwater interventions must match the ecological scale relevant to species targeted by management. In many cases, management and policy will require mechanisms in order to ensure that local actions scale-up to efficiently and effectively achieve management objectives. In the face of rapid urbanization of coastal zones, failure to consider the match of management and ecological scales will result in the continued decline of coastal ecosystems and the species they support. This article is part of the theme issue 'Integrative research perspectives on marine conservation'.

Nature and mental health: An ecosystem service perspective.

A growing body of empirical evidence is revealing the value of nature experience for mental health. With rapid urbanization and declines in human contact with nature globally, crucial decisions must be made about how to preserve and enhance opportunities for nature experience. Here, we first provide points of consensus across the natural, social, and health sciences on the impacts of nature experience on cognitive functioning, emotional well-being, and other dimensions of mental health. We then show how ecosystem service assessments can be expanded to include mental health, and provide a heuristic, conceptual model for doing so.

The unequal vulnerability of communities of color to wildfire.

Globally, environmental disasters impact billions of people and cost trillions of dollars in damage, and their impacts are often felt most acutely by minority and poor communities. Wildfires in the U.S. have similarly outsized impacts on vulnerable communities, though the ethnic and geographic distribution of those communities may be different than for other hazards. Here, we develop a social-ecological approach for characterizing fire vulnerability and apply it to >70,000 census tracts across the United States. Our approach incorporates both the wildfire potential of a landscape and socioeconomic attributes of overlying communities. We find that over 29 million Americans live with significant potential for extreme wildfires, a majority of whom are white and socioeconomically secure. Within this segment, however, are 12 million socially vulnerable Americans for whom a wildfire event could be devastating. Additionally, wildfire vulnerability is spread unequally across race and ethnicity, with census tracts that were majority Black, Hispanic or Native American experiencing ca. 50% greater vulnerability to wildfire compared to other census tracts. Embracing a social-ecological perspective of fire-prone landscapes allows for the identification of areas that are poorly equipped to respond to wildfires.

Nature Contact and Human Health: A Research Agenda.

BACKGROUND: At a time of increasing disconnectedness from nature, scientific interest in the potential health benefits of nature contact has grown. Research in recent decades has yielded substantial evidence, but large gaps remain in our understanding. OBJECTIVES: We propose a research agenda on nature contact and health, identifying principal domains of research and key questions that, if answered, would provide the basis for evidence-based public health interventions. DISCUSSION: We identify research questions in seven domains: a) mechanistic biomedical studies; b) exposure science; c) epidemiology of health benefits; d) diversity and equity considerations; e) technological nature; f) economic and policy studies; and g) implementation science. CONCLUSIONS: Nature contact may offer a range of human health benefits. Although much evidence is already available, much remains unknown. A robust research effort, guided by a focus on key unanswered questions, has the potential to yield high-impact, consequential public health insights. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1663.

Rapid and direct recoveries of predators and prey through synchronized ecosystem management.

One of the twenty-first century's greatest environmental challenges is to recover and restore species, habitats and ecosystems. The decision about how to initiate restoration is best-informed by an understanding of the linkages between ecosystem components and, given these linkages, an appreciation of the consequences of choosing to recover one ecosystem component before another. However, it remains difficult to predict how the sequence of species' recoveries within food webs influences the speed and trajectory of restoration, and what that means for human well-being. Here, we develop theory to consider the ecological and social implications of synchronous versus sequential (species-by-species) recovery in the context of exploited food webs. A dynamical systems model demonstrates that synchronous recovery of predators and prey is almost always more efficient than sequential recovery. Compared with sequential recovery, synchronous recovery can be twice as fast and produce transient fluctuations of much lower amplitude. A predator-first strategy is particularly slow because it counterproductively suppresses prey recovery. An analysis of real-world predator-prey recoveries shows that synchronous and sequential recoveries are similarly common, suggesting that current practices are not ideal. We highlight policy tools that can facilitate swift and steady recovery of ecosystem structure, function and associated services.

Ecosystem context and historical contingency in apex predator recoveries.

Habitat loss, overexploitation, and numerous other stressors have caused global declines in apex predators. This "trophic downgrading" has generated widespread concern because of the fundamental role that apex predators can play in ecosystem functioning, disease regulation, and biodiversity maintenance. In attempts to combat declines, managers have conducted reintroductions, imposed stricter harvest regulations, and implemented protected areas. We suggest that full recovery of viable apex predator populations is currently the exception rather than the rule. We argue that, in addition to well-known considerations, such as continued exploitation and slow life histories, there are several underappreciated factors that complicate predator recoveries. These factors include three challenges. First, a priori identification of the suite of trophic interactions, such as resource limitation and competition that will influence recovery can be difficult. Second, defining and accomplishing predator recovery in the context of a dynamic ecosystem requires an appreciation of the timing of recovery, which can determine the relative density of apex predators and other predators and therefore affect competitive outcomes. Third, successful recovery programs require designing adaptive sequences of management strategies that embrace key environmental and species interactions as they emerge. Consideration of recent research on food web modules, alternative stable states, and community assembly offer important insights for predator recovery efforts and restoration ecology more generally. Foremost among these is the importance of a social-ecological perspective in facilitating a long-lasting predator restoration while avoiding unintended consequences.

Transforming management of tropical coastal seas to cope with challenges of the 21st century.

Over 1.3 billion people live on tropical coasts, primarily in developing countries. Many depend on adjacent coastal seas for food, and livelihoods. We show how trends in demography and in several local and global anthropogenic stressors are progressively degrading capacity of coastal waters to sustain these people. Far more effective approaches to environmental management are needed if the loss in provision of ecosystem goods and services is to be stemmed. We propose expanded use of marine spatial planning as a framework for more effective, pragmatic management based on ocean zones to accommodate conflicting uses. This would force the holistic, regional-scale reconciliation of food security, livelihoods, and conservation that is needed. Transforming how countries manage coastal resources will require major change in policy and politics, implemented with sufficient flexibility to accommodate societal variations. Achieving this change is a major challenge - one that affects the lives of one fifth of humanity.

Advancing the use of local ecological knowledge for assessing data-poor species in coastal ecosystems.

Many of the world's most vulnerable and rapidly changing ecosystems are also among the most data-poor, leading to an increased interest in use of local ecological knowledge (LEK) to document long-term environmental change. The integration of multiple knowledge sources for assessing species abundance and distribution has gained traction over the past decade as a growing number of case studies show concordance between LEK and scientific data. This study advances the use of quantitative approaches for synthesizing LEK by presenting a novel application of bootstrapping and statistical modeling to evaluate variance in ecological observations of fisheries practitioners. We developed an historical record of abundance for 22 marine species in Puget Sound, Washington (USA), using LEK, and we quantified variation in perceptions of abundance trends among fishers, divers, and researchers. These individuals differed in aspects of their information environments, which are characterized by how, when, and where an individual has acquired ecological information. Abundance trends derived from interviews suggest that populations of long-lived rockfishes (Sebastes spp.) have been in decline since at least the 1960s and that three rockfishes protected under the Endangered Species Act were perceived as relatively less abundant than other species. Differences in perception of rockfish abundance trends among age groups were consistent with our hypothesis that the reported magnitude of decline in abundance would increase with age, with younger respondents more likely to report high abundance than older individuals across all periods. Temporal patterns in the mean and variance of reported rockfish abundance indices were qualitatively similar between fishers and researchers; however, fishers reported higher indices of abundance than researchers for all but one rockfish species. The two respondent groups reported similar changes in rockfish abundance from the 1940s to 2000s, except for two recreationally valuable species that fishers perceived as having undergone greater declines than perceived by researchers. When aggregated at appropriate spatial-temporal scales and in a culturally appropriate manner, observations of resource users are a valuable source of ecological information. Continued development of creative analytical tools for synthesizing multiple knowledge sources will be essential for advancing the formal use of LEK in assessments of marine species.

Environmental awareness and public support for protecting and restoring Puget sound.

In an effort to garner consensus around environmental programs, practitioners have attempted to increase awareness about environmental threats and demonstrate the need for action. Nonetheless, how beliefs about the scope and severity of different types of environmental concerns shape support for management interventions are less clear. Using data from a telephone survey of residents of the Puget Sound region of Washington, we investigate how perceptions of the severity of different coastal environmental problems, along with other social factors, affect attitudes about policy options. We find that self-assessed environmental understanding and views about the seriousness of pollution, habitat loss, and salmon declines are only weakly related. Among survey respondents, women, young people, and those who believe pollution threatens Puget Sound are more likely to support policy measures such as increased enforcement and spending on restoration. Conversely, self-identified Republicans and individuals who view current regulations as ineffective tend to oppose governmental actions aimed at protecting and restoring Puget Sound. Support for one policy measure-tax credits for environmentally-friendly business practices-is not significantly affected by political party affiliation. These findings demonstrate that environmental awareness can influence public support for environmental policy tools. However, the nature of particular management interventions and other social forces can have important mitigating effects and need to be considered by practitioners attempting to develop environment-related social indicators and generate consensus around the need for action to address environmental problems.

Indirect effects of conservation policies on the coupled human-natural ecosystem of the upper Gulf of California.

High bycatch of non-target species and species of conservation concern often drives the implementation of fisheries policies. However, species- or fishery-specific policies may lead to indirect consequences, positive or negative, for other species or fisheries. We use an Atlantis ecosystem model of the Northern Gulf of California to evaluate the effects of fisheries policies directed at reducing bycatch of vaquita (Phocoena sinus) on other species of conservation concern, priority target species, and metrics of ecosystem function and structure. Vaquita, a Critically Endangered porpoise endemic to the Upper Gulf of California, are frequently entangled by finfish gillnets and shrimp driftnets. We tested five fishery management scenarios, projected over 30 years (2008 to 2038), directed at vaquita conservation. The scenarios consider progressively larger spatial restrictions for finfish gillnets and shrimp driftnets. The most restrictive scenario resulted in the highest biomass of species of conservation concern; the scenario without any conservation measures in place resulted in the lowest. Vaquita experienced the largest population increase of any functional group; their biomass increased 2.7 times relative to initial (2008) levels under the most restrictive spatial closure scenario. Bycatch of sea lions, sea turtles, and totoaba decreased > 80% in shrimp driftnets and at least 20% in finfish gillnet fleets under spatial management. We found indirect effects on species and ecosystem function and structure as a result of vaquita management actions. Biomass and catch of forage fish declined, which could affect lower-trophic level fisheries, while other species such as skates, rays, and sharks increased in both biomass and catch. When comparing across performance metrics, we found that scenarios that increased ecosystem function and structure resulted in lower economic performance indicators, underscoring the need for management actions that consider ecological and economic tradeoffs as part of the integrated management of the Upper Gulf of California.

Exploring trade-offs between fisheries and conservation of the vaquita porpoise (Phocoena sinus) using an Atlantis ecosystem model.

BACKGROUND: Minimizing fishery bycatch threats might involve trade-offs between maintaining viable populations and economic benefits. Understanding these trade-offs can help managers reconcile conflicting goals. An example is a set of bycatch reduction measures for the Critically Endangered vaquita porpoise (Phocoena sinus), in the Northern Gulf of California, Mexico. The vaquita is an endemic species threatened with extinction by artisanal net bycatch within its limited range; in this area fisheries are the chief source of economic productivity. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We analyze trade-offs between conservation of the vaquita and fisheries, using an end-to-end Atlantis ecosystem model for the Northern Gulf of California. Atlantis is a spatially-explicit model intended as a strategic tool to test alternative management strategies. We simulated increasingly restrictive fisheries regulations contained in the vaquita conservation plan: implementing progressively larger spatial management areas that exclude gillnets, shrimp driftnets and introduce a fishing gear that has no vaquita bycatch. We found that only the most extensive spatial management scenarios recovered the vaquita population above the threshold necessary to downlist the species from Critically Endangered. The scenario that excludes existing net gear from the 2008 area of vaquita distribution led to moderate decrease in net present value (US$ 42 million) relative to the best-performing scenario and a two-fold increase in the abundance of adult vaquita over the course of 30 years. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Extended spatial management resulted in the highest recovery of the vaquita population. The economic cost of proposed management actions was unequally divided between fishing fleets; the loss of value from finfish gillnet fisheries was never recovered. Our analysis shows that managers will have to confront difficult trade-offs between management scenarios for vaquita conservation.

A methodology for evaluating and ranking water quantity indicators in support of ecosystem-based management.

Ecosystem-based Management (EBM) is an approach that includes different management priorities and requires a balance between anthropogenic and ecological resource demands. Indicators can be used to monitor ecosystem status and trends, and assess whether projects and/or programs are leading to the achievement of management goals. As such, the careful selection of a suite of indicators is a crucial exercise. In this paper we describe an indicator evaluation and selection process designed to support the EBM approach in Puget Sound. The first step in this process was the development of a general framework for selecting indicators. The framework, designed to transparently include both scientific and policy considerations into the selection and evaluation process, was developed and then utilized in the organization and determination of a preliminary set of indicators. Next, the indicators were assessed against a set of nineteen distinct criteria that describe the model characteristics of an indicator. A literature review was performed for each indicator to determine the extent to which it satisfied each of the evaluation criteria. The result of each literature review was summarized in a numerical matrix, allowing comparison, and demonstrating the extent of scientific reliability. Finally, an approach for ranking indicators was developed to explore the effects of intended purpose on indicator selection. We identified several sets of scientifically valid and policy-relevant indicators that included metrics such as annual-7 day low flow and water system reliability, which are supportive of the EBM approach in the Puget Sound.

Selecting indicator portfolios for marine species and food webs: a Puget sound case study.

Ecosystem-based management (EBM) has emerged as a promising approach for maintaining the benefits humans want and need from the ocean, yet concrete approaches for implementing EBM remain scarce. A key challenge lies in the development of indicators that can provide useful information on ecosystem status and trends, and assess progress towards management goals. In this paper, we describe a generalized framework for the methodical and transparent selection of ecosystem indicators. We apply the framework to the second largest estuary in the United States - Puget Sound, Washington - where one of the most advanced EBM processes is currently underway. Rather than introduce a new method, this paper integrates a variety of familiar approaches into one step-by-step approach that will lead to more consistent and reliable reporting on ecosystem condition. Importantly, we demonstrate how a framework linking indicators to policy goals, as well as a clearly defined indicator evaluation and scoring process, can result in a portfolio of useful and complementary indicators based on the needs of different users (e.g., policy makers and scientists). Although the set of indicators described in this paper is specific to marine species and food webs, we provide a general approach that could be applied to any set of management objectives or ecological system.